T+24: Quick Notes for the Laymen on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Being 24 hours into the Russian ground invasion of Ukraine, it was always a foregone conclusion that the latter former Soviet nation would fall. Russia was/is a far greater adversary and grossly outmatched the lesser country. But there are a number of factors to remember while the MSM propaganda apparatus spins up into overdrive:

Source: NYT
  • Per the 1994 agreements for disarmament, when Ukraine separated from the former Soviet bloc, then President Clinton negotiated away Ukraine’s nuclear weapons back to Russia for consideration of the country into NATO. This essentially denuded the emergent country with no real military organization.
  • NATO has consistently told Ukrainian authorities that to be considered for entry into NATO, it has to address the rampant governmental corruption—Ukraine never did. In fact all evidence suggests that those in the US government have increasingly benefited from sustaining said corruption.
  • At this time, the Russian military has attained air superiority, with modest gains on the ground. The Ukrainian military is currently trading land for time, appearing to draw the Russians into a protracted urban conflict. Multiple videos on social media and news platforms show some downed Russian aircraft and tanks, but for the most part the Russians are simply overwhelming the Ukrainian forces with protracted conflicts around populaiton centers.
  • The only “value” Ukraine has is strategic—either as a buffer between the Russians and NATO, so it becomes more a question of who controls it will reap its advantage. It has little in terms of economic advantages to offer Europe or The West.
  • As America learned in Iraq and Afghanistan, taking territory is different than holding it. And the Ukrainian military and people are far less likely to accept Russian authority than when Crimea was taken back in 2014. An underground insurgency is bound to form and it will need supplies, weapons, and political backing from Europe and The West if it is to survive.
  • The ultimate effect of this invasion to the United States will be further economic pressures as global and domestic markets react. There is little in terms of a physical threat from a conflict in Europe to the United States unless the conflict draws in a NATO ally (Article 5 via “Collective Defense”). A larger concern would be how other rogue nations, such as China and its desire to take Taiwan or Iran to put into place a forma nuclear program, react to perceived signs of weakness by the United States and NATO to stop an aggressive country from invading another.
  • In his speech this afternoon, President Joe Biden basically laid out economic sanctions against Russia that will come into effect over the course of the next month. In addition, he stated the U.S. will bolster other NATO countries with military support. This will change nothing in terms of the events on the ground, nor slow/halt the Russian occupation of Ukraine. In essence, Ukraine has been written off. The European Union is in complete disarray, because over the last two decades it has pushed most of its NATO obligations (security and economic) onto the United States, while also becoming increasingly economically reliant on Russian exports. So for the EU to take any kind of action, it will be in essence shooting its own foot.

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